Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 22.036304 23.973033 26.068474 28.515633 31.309822 34.418401 38.163025
2025-10-19 19.237971 21.928507 25.048825 28.981963 33.876015 39.860751 47.887835
2025-10-26 17.029059 20.094352 23.841089 28.856912 35.557070 44.452087 57.627986
2025-11-02 15.350589 18.607545 22.757156 28.591888 36.868463 48.685138 67.893968
2025-11-09 14.135429 17.522184 21.990667 28.546631 38.359409 53.350146 80.046108
2025-11-16 13.106063 16.547458 21.221788 28.332098 39.486308 57.604415 92.803720
2025-11-23 12.245837 15.705164 20.522596 28.086474 40.463876 61.748214 106.763750
2025-11-30 11.516099 14.971791 19.890742 27.835682 41.347795 65.865206 122.257003
2025-12-07 10.927759 14.386116 19.409899 27.743446 42.452346 70.600440 141.247477
2025-12-14 10.371901 13.802080 18.873214 27.484343 43.196043 74.771928 160.986905
2025-12-21 10.164780 13.713998 19.081244 28.478502 46.402703 84.944900 203.985593
2025-12-28 9.718903 13.232176 18.625619 28.265795 47.224105 89.997562 234.997434
2026-01-04 9.341359 12.839518 18.295345 28.263603 48.526622 96.756484 279.199099
2026-01-11 9.055130 12.571162 18.147468 28.578836 50.564605 106.151265 346.168839
2026-01-18 8.701678 12.174901 17.756034 28.393320 51.477494 112.846885 411.022059
2026-01-25 8.360363 11.778488 17.335710 28.107210 52.115603 119.025614 484.980492
2026-02-01 8.084495 11.472388 17.048494 28.051153 53.290133 127.396946 593.928049
2026-02-08 7.804476 11.144433 16.700594 27.836812 54.044556 134.758324 718.688603
2026-02-15 7.540664 10.829932 16.356068 27.595128 54.693607 142.110760 874.026741
2026-02-22 7.294619 10.533217 16.024942 27.349678 55.297069 149.660957 1073.348141
2026-03-01 7.087011 10.291309 15.778034 27.259339 56.308202 159.440565 1378.920219
2026-03-08 6.870197 10.024059 15.469136 27.006558 56.833088 167.548033 1743.700224
2026-03-15 6.827734 10.051848 15.705786 27.975516 61.053347 195.385202 3174.157891